Sitter och bläddrar i SOU 2013:84 (Fossilfrihet på väg) och kan inte låta bli att snabbt kommentera en detalj (mer övergripande analys är planerad).
I kapitlet om viktiga antaganden så finns avsnittet “Ekonomisk utvecklig 2010-2050”, där följande tabell redovisas:
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
Genast när det handlar om bedömningar av procentuell tillväxt över många år så blir jag misstänksam. Snabb kontrollräkning visar att vid antagande om en genomsnittlig ökning med 2% per år under perioden, så motsvarar 2% 2050 en ökning med 4% 2010 (i absoluta tal) .
I rapporten redovisas att det är Konjunkturinstitutets ekonomiska prognoser fram till 2030 och en framskrivning av dessa under 2030-2050 som ligger till grund. Därutöver kommenteras det enligt följande:
“Den strukturella bilden bygger på historiska trender för skilda sektorers produktivitetsutveckling, tendenser hos strukturella förändringar under de senaste åren och antaganden om skilda sektorers framtida förutsättningar på världsmarknaden.”
Det allra viktigaste antagandet, dvs att tillväxten i absoluta tal ska vara dubbelt så hög 2050 som 2010, kommenteras alltså inte alls. Konsumtionen (gärna lånebaserad)
framhålls ju ofta som en viktig tillväxtfaktor, så kan någon förklara för mig varför vi 2050 årligen ska kunna öka vår shopping dubbelt så mycket som vi gör idag?
Framförallt skulle jag vilja veta varför det kan göras antagande om dubbelt så stor årlig tillväxt 2050 utan någon som helst förklaring? I min värld är det snarare rimligt att anta en avtagande tillväxt, även i absoluta tal, med tanke på ökad global konkurrens om begränsade naturresurser (och även minskande sådana).